Beijing and Pyongyang have just dropped a diplomatic bombshell. Xi Jinping will travel to North Korea for a state visit next week. It is his first trip there since 2019. The last meeting between the two leaders was in 2021 via video link. This is a huge signal. The timing is deliberate. Kim Jong Un has been ramping up missile tests. He wants legitimacy. Xi wants loyalty. British diplomacy is now on high alert.
Whitehall sources tell me the Foreign Office has been caught off guard. The visit was kept under tight wraps until the last moment. FCO mandarins are scrambling for intelligence. They are worried about what deals are being cut. North Korea is a pariah state. China is its only real patron. A summit in Pyongyang sends a message to the west. We are still in the game.
The last Xi-Kim summit produced little tangible result. But this one could be different. Kim needs food and fuel. His economy is in tatters. China needs a buffer against US influence in Asia. There is talk of a new strategic partnership. That would worry Washington. And by extension, London. The UK is a key US ally. We have troops in the region. Our intelligence sharing is vital.
What does Downing Street make of it? Number 10 is staying quiet. Off the record, they are nervous. The Prime Minister is already under pressure over his own foreign policy record. A Xi-Kim lovefest is the last thing he needs. Backbenchers will demand a statement. The Foreign Secretary will be grilled in the Commons. Expect tough questions about British diplomatic engagement with North Korea.
There is a play for the UK here. We could use this to restart our own dialogue with Pyongyang. But that is a poisoned chalice. Human rights groups will scream. The US might not approve. For now, the FCO is in watching brief mode. They will be tracking every photo op and handshake. Decrypting any subtle signals.
Kim has not hosted a foreign leader since the pandemic began. This visit is a big deal for him too. It breaks his isolation. It validates his regime. Xi gains a loyal ally on China's border. The west loses a bit more influence. The game of thrones in Asia continues. Whitehall knows it must adapt. But how? That is the million dollar question.
Expect a flurry of diplomatic activity behind the scenes. Our man in Beijing will be busy. The North Korean embassy in London? A ghost ship. Rarely used. But its few staff will now be under watch. The FCO will be mining every scrap of open source intelligence. Satellite images, trade data, travel patterns. Anything to gauge the true intent of this summit.
Labour will want answers too. The shadow foreign secretary is already sharpening his knives. He will demand to know what the UK is doing to counter Chinese influence. The government will say it is working through the UN. But that looks weak. The reality is Britain has limited leverage. We are a middle power. China and North Korea are playing their own game.
One thing is clear: this visit is a headache for the west. It comes as the Ukraine war enters a new phase. It distracts from the US pivot to Europe. It reminds everyone that Asia is still the prize. Xi is showing he can still move the chess pieces. Kim is showing he matters. And Whitehall? It is left watching from the sidelines. For now.
